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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."