🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.